What 2022’s most popular tyre industry stories tell us about the future
Those that don’t learn from history are doomed to repeat it. The well-known saying might not be completely transferable to this column, but as we kick-start 2023 analysing the most popular stories on our Tyrepress.com website does help us understand what the major themes of last year were. And a closer look at those themes will reveal which issues are continuing into this year. January’s magazine focuses on the ever-resilient agricultural tyre sector (see Tyres & Accessories, January, page 36 onwards) as well as the latest developments in the TPMS and sensor technology segment (see page 20), but first let’s take a look at the biggest stories of 2022 as recorded online.
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Looking back, looking forward: 2022, tyres and the word ‘permacrisis’
This time last year we sought to sum up what can only be described as a tumultuous preceding 12 months by pointing to the Oxford English Dictionary word of 2021, which was “vax” – something that harked back to the heights of pandemic-related lockdowns. But for many it is still a current reality. The year before it the word of the year was “unprecedented”.
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Farewell Russia? The exit of global players offers long-term growth to domestic firms
Global tyre businesses have exited the Russian tyre business as a direct consequence of the Russian government’s decision to invade Ukraine. We all knew this was coming, following initial announcements from the likes of Michelin, Bridgestone and Nokian along those lines in the second quarter of 2022. However, the news that Nokian sold its much-lauded St. Petersburg operation to Tatneft at the end of October indicates that the exodus is underway. And that, in turn, means significant tyre production capacity within Russia has changed hands, something that has an inevitable impact on those departing, those remaining and the wider tyre business. In this column, we take a look at how Michelin, Bridgestone and Nokian have been negotiating their respective exits from Russia and ask what it might mean for the future.
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Changing tyre distribution landscapes
The suggestion that the UK tyre distribution space is ripe for consolidation is not new. But during the single week that we went to press with the latest edition at the start of October, three big tyre retail announcements were made. First Stop broke through the 150-branch barrier. Point S announced that its buying group of independent tyre retailers now numbers 300. And Halfords bought Lodge Tyres for just over £37 million.
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Rewarding success in the tyre business
In July, TyreSafe held its first post-lockdown in-person day conference and awards event. More recently the NTDA named the winners at its annual Tyre Industry Awards event. And our sister publication WhatTyre.com has also published names of the winners of its 2022 WhatTyre Tyre of the Year awards. What these three things have in common is that they all aim to give credit where credit is due. They all aim to reward success.
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Tyre manufacturers expanding in a down market
June and July saw a spate of factory investment and opening announcements. First there’s the news that Linglong manufactured its first tyre at its brand-new Serbia tyre production plant at the end of June. Of course, this project has been underway for some time, but the fact that it got going just before the end of the first half of 2022 is noteworthy for two reasons. Firstly, notwithstanding the inhibiting effect of general market headwinds associated with pandemic fall-out and war in Ukraine, the project is basically on-schedule. And secondly, it demonstrates that no enthusiasm for Western and specifically European tyre production has been lost since the nullification of European import tariffs against Chinese-produced truck tyres roughly a month ago.
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Can we Truss government to turn UK motorways into autobahns?
Following the headline-grabbing news that Liz Truss is open to the idea of turning the UK motorway network into an autobahn-style system, we took a closer look at the idea. Of course, we all know that both Truss and Sunak are electioneering at the moment, doing their best to tell tory members what they think they want to hear. But, however sincere the motivation turns out to be, dispatching with the speed limit will have an inevitable impact on both road safety and the tyre market. So, with that in mind, this month’s column is something of a thought experiment. What would happen if Liz Truss became prime minister and got her way when it comes to turning motorways into autobahns?
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Chinese tyremakers encouraging European customers to claim back truck tyre tariff payments
On 4 May 2022 the European Court of Justice ruled that anti-dumping and anti-subsidy tariffs imposed against Chinese produced truck tyres in 2018 must be annulled. We take a close look at the ruling and the immediate impact on retreaders and Chinese tyremakers alike from page four of June’s bilingual Retreading Special supplement onwards. But what about the tariffs charges that have already been paid? And what about the ongoing impact of the tariff annulment?
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MOT interval madness as the business faces 1 million more tests in 2022
OTR tyres, seasonal tyres (such as winter and all-season products) and the tyre retail business are our key features this month. As important as the development of the OTR and seasonal tyre segments undoubtedly is, the combination of tectonic shifts in the UK tyre retail landscape and transport secretary Grant Shapps’ decision to once again suggest changing MOT frequency have stolen my column’s attention this month. On the latter point, NTDA chief executive Stefan Hay was understandably riled to learn that Shapps is retreading the meddling-with-the-MOT path (something readers can read more about in the UK section of Mays magazine). Either way, renewed focus on MOT protocol is firmly connected with the ongoing development of the tyre retail business.
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Ukraine war continues putting tyre production under pressure
At the start of the year this column predicted a positive 2022 for the tyre business on the basis that we are better prepared for the unknown because of the adaptions made during the last few pandemic years. I still believe that. But my thesis is being tested by the implications of the now month-long war in Ukraine. All our expectations are being tested. For example, never before have I received an email which switches from normal editorial matters to “our country has been invaded” from one line to the next.
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How will war in Ukraine impact European tyre production?
The tragedy of war always has repercussions. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine at the end of February is no exception. With reports of thousands of deaths and hundreds of thousands of people already displaced, the human cost is incalculable. While blood is being spilt in Ukraine at a horrifying rate, this war is being fought on at least three fronts: military, electronic and financial. The human cost of the military dimension is beyond the scope of this publication. Likewise, cyber-warfare is probably a bridge too far (unless we are talking about vehicle cyber security, which is of increasing importance right down to the aftermarket garage level – see pages 16 to 17 of our forthcoming March edition for more on this). The economic cost of the war in Ukraine, however, will have an inevitable impact on European tyre production directly due to conflict and indirectly due to logistics and the impact of sanctions.
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Expansion – production has changed, but it is certainly ramping back up again
Last month, this column suggested that “acquisitions, consolidation and sustainability” were three words that will sum-up developments in the tyre business in 2022. Judging by what has taken place in the weeks since that text was published, the overall argument was pretty sound. However, in retrospect it also seems pretty clear that we could have, and perhaps should have, added in a fourth term – “expansion”.
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Key tyre industry themes for 2022: acquisitions, consolidation and sustainability
A quick glance at our recent top 10 articles of 2021 email offers a unique overview of the major themes of the last 12 months. Since most of those issues are ongoing stories, they bring with them a useful insight into some of the things we can expect in 2022 – an insight that can be summarised by these three words: acquisitions, consolidation and sustainability.
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Who cares what tyres are made from? – BTMA
The US Energy Information Administration recently forecast that the global light-duty vehicle fleet (essentially cars, vans and pick-ups) would increase by 70 per cent by 2050. Closer to home, the UK Department for Transport has forecast that car and van traffic will increase by 35 per cent and 70 per cent respectively over the next 30 years. By another measure and more immediately, global consumption of natural rubber for tyre manufacture is forecast to increase by 33 per cent by 2030.
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Looking forward to a better 2022, despite “disruption”
At the end of the year, it is customary to look back at the preceding 12 months as well as to look forward at what the future has to hold. One way our culture sums up the past year is to nominate a fitting word that encapsulates the spirit of the age. Last year our word of the year was “unprecedented”. This year the (OED) Oxford English Dictionary word of 2021 is “vax”, which offers us all – as if it were needed – a reminder of the continuing presence of Covid-19 during the last year.
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