IRSG predicts decade of strong tyre demand
The secretary general of the influential International Rubber Study Group (IRSG) has predicted strong global demand for tyres through to the end of the decade. Speaking at the opening of Tyrexpo Asia 2011 in Singapore on 29 March 2011 Dr Stephen Evans said:
“Our forecasts point to a sustained growth and strong demand for new vehicles and tyres through to the end of the decade. Much of the extra demand will originate from China and to a lesser extend India, but from an overall perspective the years through to 2020 will be a period of opportunity for tyre makers and the replacement and service sectors.”
Dr Evans pointed to strong growth in OE and replacement tyre sales as a result of increased vehicle production: OE passenger car tyre sales growing from 290 million units in 2010 to 400 million units by 2020. Replacement car tyre sales moving from 760 million units in 2010 to 1.2 billion units by 2020
“We believe there are currently around one billion vehicles in use around the world and predict that figure will rise to as many as 1.45 billion towards the end of the decade. China alone is set to reach a target of an extra 200 million vehicles over the same time frame,” said Dr Evans.
With around 70 per cent of natural rubber and 50 per cent of synthetic rubber going into tyre production, global rubber consumption is set to follow increased tyre manufacturing activity accordingly.
2010 consumption of 10.7 million tonnes of natural rubber for all markets (tyre and non-tyre) is forecast to grow to 15.4 million tonnes by 2020. The comparable figures for all synthetic rubber markets are 13.6 million tonnes in 2010, rising to 18.5 million tonnes by 2020.